Joel Makin v Greg Lobban (Thu 05 Dec 2019)
Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 15-13,11-8,11-5.
Starting level for
Joel Makin:
53,103, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Greg Lobban:
41,706, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing
27% better than Greg Lobban.
Joel Makin won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played
46% better than Greg Lobban in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of
56,960 and Greg Lobban at a level of
38,882. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.3% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.4% and 6.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +5.8% and Greg Lobban changes to -6.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +1.6% and for Greg Lobban becomes -1.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 89%, Greg Lobban: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 83%, Greg Lobban: 79%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Joel Makin:
53,734, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Greg Lobban:
41,135, level confidence: 79%.