Declan James v Adewale Amao (Sat 30 Nov 2019)
Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-2,11-3,11-1.
Starting level for
Declan James:
39,135, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Adewale Amao:
11,745, level confidence: 44%.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing
233% better than Adewale Amao.
Declan James won all of the games and 85% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 450% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played
450% better than Adewale Amao in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Declan James actually played at a level of
50,279 and Adewale Amao at a level of
9,142. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to +7.8% and Adewale Amao changes to -15%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes +2% and for Adewale Amao becomes -4.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 91%, Adewale Amao: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 71%, Adewale Amao: 52%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Declan James:
39,873, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Adewale Amao:
11,262, level confidence: 52%.