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Declan James v David Baillargeon (Sat 30 Nov 2019)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-8,10-12,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Declan James: 39,718, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Baillargeon: 25,431, level confidence: 67%.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 56% better than David Baillargeon.

Declan James won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 28% better than David Baillargeon in this match.

As Declan James has played below his allowed range at 33,929, his level reduction is 4.2% before damping. On the assumption that Declan James would normally have been playing at level 37,465 (based on typical behaviour), David Baillargeon played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.3% and 5.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to -2.6% and David Baillargeon changes to +5.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes -1% and for David Baillargeon becomes +1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 92%, David Baillargeon: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 83%, David Baillargeon: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 39,221, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for David Baillargeon: 25,963, level confidence: 74%.