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Greg Lobban v Paul Coll (Thu 28 Nov 2019)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 5-11,4-11,6-11.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 43,433, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Coll: 59,151, level confidence: 59%.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Greg Lobban.

Paul Coll won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played 120% better than Greg Lobban in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Coll actually played at a level of 75,180 and Greg Lobban at a level of 34,173. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to +23% and Greg Lobban changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes +4.3% and for Greg Lobban becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 77%, Greg Lobban: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 60%, Greg Lobban: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 42,167, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Paul Coll: 61,229, level confidence: 60%.