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Gareth Edwards v Frazer Richards (Thu 05 Dec 2019)

Match won by Frazer Richards. Result: 4-11,4-11,6-11.

Starting level for Gareth Edwards: 1,908, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Frazer Richards: 6,912, level confidence: 61%.
Frazer Richards to win as he is currently playing 262% better than Gareth Edwards.

Frazer Richards won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Frazer Richards played 136% better than Gareth Edwards in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Frazer Richards was taking it easy by anything up to 31%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,013 and 6,912 without affecting his level.

In this case, Frazer Richards played at level 4,636 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Frazer Richards would normally have been playing at level 4,779 (based on typical behaviour), Gareth Edwards played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Frazer Richards changes to 0% and Gareth Edwards changes to +1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Frazer Richards becomes 0% and for Gareth Edwards becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2019' so the adjustment for Frazer Richards is 0% and for Gareth Edwards is +0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Frazer Richards: 78%, Gareth Edwards: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Frazer Richards: 63%, Gareth Edwards: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gareth Edwards: 1,923, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Frazer Richards: 6,902, level confidence: 63%.