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Frazer Richards v Luke Howells (Thu 28 Nov 2019)

Match won by Frazer Richards. Result: 14-16,12-14,11-9,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Frazer Richards: 6,608, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for Luke Howells: 5,734, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Frazer Richards to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Luke Howells.

Frazer Richards won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Frazer Richards played 10% better than Luke Howells in this match.

As Frazer Richards has played below his allowed range at 6,431, his level reduction is 1.7% before damping. On the assumption that Frazer Richards would normally have been playing at level 6,576 (based on typical behaviour), Luke Howells played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Frazer Richards changes to -1.3% and Luke Howells changes to +1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Frazer Richards becomes -0.7% and for Luke Howells becomes +1%.

Given Frazer Richards's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.4% has been applied to his level change.

Given Luke Howells's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.1% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2019' so the adjustment for Frazer Richards is -0.5% and for Luke Howells is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Frazer Richards: 94%, Luke Howells: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Frazer Richards: 92%, Luke Howells: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Frazer Richards: 6,564, level confidence: 92%.
Final level for Luke Howells: 5,768, level confidence: 85%.