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Siôn Evans v Frazer Richards (Thu 21 Nov 2019)

Match won by Siôn Evans. Result: 11-4,6-11,9-11,11-9,15-13.

Starting level for Siôn Evans: 7,757, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Frazer Richards: 6,614, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Siôn Evans to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Frazer Richards.

Siôn Evans won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Siôn Evans played 10% better than Frazer Richards in this match.

As Siôn Evans has played below his allowed range at 7,438, his level reduction is 2.6% before damping. On the assumption that Siôn Evans would normally have been playing at level 7,702 (based on typical behaviour), Frazer Richards played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.1%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Siôn Evans changes to -2.4% and Frazer Richards changes to +2.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Siôn Evans becomes -1.3% and for Frazer Richards becomes +1.2%.

Given Siôn Evans's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.4% has been applied to his level change.

Given Frazer Richards's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2019' so the adjustment for Siôn Evans is -0.9% and for Frazer Richards is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Siôn Evans: 81%, Frazer Richards: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Siôn Evans: 79%, Frazer Richards: 90%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Siôn Evans: 7,679, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Frazer Richards: 6,659, level confidence: 90%.