Greg Lobban v Max Lee (Sun 10 Nov 2019)
Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-6,11-6,8-11,11-8.
Starting level for
Greg Lobban:
41,790, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Max Lee:
37,064, level confidence: 69%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Max Lee.
Greg Lobban won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played
27% better than Max Lee in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of
44,421 and Max Lee at a level of
34,869. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +4.7% and Max Lee changes to -5.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +1.5% and for Max Lee becomes -1.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 92%, Max Lee: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 87%, Max Lee: 78%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Greg Lobban:
42,380, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Max Lee:
36,608, level confidence: 78%.