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Edmon Lopez Moller v Kristian Frost Olesen (Sun 10 Nov 2019)

Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 11-9,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 32,606, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for Kristian Frost Olesen: 30,407, level confidence: 68%.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Kristian Frost Olesen.

Edmon Lopez Moller won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played 74% better than Kristian Frost Olesen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Edmon Lopez Moller actually played at a level of 41,497 and Kristian Frost Olesen at a level of 23,892. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to +26% and Kristian Frost Olesen changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes +5.4% and for Kristian Frost Olesen becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 68%, Kristian Frost Olesen: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 54%, Kristian Frost Olesen: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 34,135, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Kristian Frost Olesen: 29,444, level confidence: 65%.