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Richard King v Frazer Richards (Sat 16 Nov 2019)

Match won by Frazer Richards. Result: 11-6,10-12,8-11.

Starting level for Richard King: 6,406, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Frazer Richards: 6,480, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Frazer Richards to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Richard King.

Frazer Richards won 67% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Frazer Richards played 10% better than Richard King in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Frazer Richards actually played at a level of 6,757 and Richard King at a level of 6,143. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.3% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 3.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Frazer Richards changes to +2.6% and Richard King changes to -3.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Frazer Richards becomes +1.4% and for Richard King becomes -1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Elite Series 2' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Frazer Richards: 92%, Richard King: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Frazer Richards: 89%, Richard King: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard King: 6,288, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Frazer Richards: 6,562, level confidence: 89%.