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Rhys Luffman v Owen Heyes (Wed 13 Nov 2019)

Match won by Owen Heyes. Result: 11-15,15-11,12-15,15-8,9-15.

Starting level for Rhys Luffman: 4,889, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Owen Heyes: 4,609, level confidence: 70%.
Rhys Luffman to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Owen Heyes.

Owen Heyes won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Owen Heyes played 8% better than Rhys Luffman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Owen Heyes actually played at a level of 4,940 and Rhys Luffman at a level of 4,561. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Owen Heyes changes to +5.3% and Rhys Luffman changes to -7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Owen Heyes becomes +2.5% and for Rhys Luffman becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Newport Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Owen Heyes: 84%, Rhys Luffman: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Owen Heyes: 78%, Rhys Luffman: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rhys Luffman: 4,784, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Owen Heyes: 4,715, level confidence: 78%.