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Declan James v Ondrej Uherka (Wed 13 Nov 2019)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-4.

Starting level for Declan James: 39,902, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ondrej Uherka: 16,369, level confidence: 70%.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 144% better than Ondrej Uherka.

Declan James won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 83% better than Ondrej Uherka in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Declan James was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 25,607 and 39,902 without affecting his level.

In this case, Declan James played at level 31,356 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Declan James would normally have been playing at level 32,762 (based on typical behaviour), Ondrej Uherka played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to 0% and Ondrej Uherka changes to +2.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes 0% and for Ondrej Uherka becomes +1.3%.

Given Ondrej Uherka's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Declan James is 0% and for Ondrej Uherka is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 90%, Ondrej Uherka: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 78%, Ondrej Uherka: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 39,894, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Ondrej Uherka: 16,484, level confidence: 72%.