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Victor Crouin v Zahed Mohamed (Mon 28 Oct 2019)

Match won by Victor Crouin. Result: 11-8,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Victor Crouin: 38,100, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 47,175, level confidence: 70%.
Zahed Mohamed to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Victor Crouin.

Victor Crouin won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Victor Crouin played 52% better than Zahed Mohamed in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Victor Crouin actually played at a level of 52,208 and Zahed Mohamed at a level of 34,427. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 33% and 33% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Victor Crouin changes to +30% and Zahed Mohamed changes to -33%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Victor Crouin becomes +5.8% and for Zahed Mohamed becomes -6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Zahed Mohamed is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Victor Crouin: 88%, Zahed Mohamed: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Victor Crouin: 64%, Zahed Mohamed: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Victor Crouin: 40,180, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 44,988, level confidence: 61%.