Fares Dessouky v Simon Rösner (Mon 28 Oct 2019)
Match won by Fares Dessouky. Result: 11-5,8-11,11-9,11-9.
Starting level for
Fares Dessouky:
51,093, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Simon Rösner:
49,607, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Fares Dessouky to win as he is currently playing
3% better than Simon Rösner.
Fares Dessouky won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fares Dessouky played
24% better than Simon Rösner in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fares Dessouky actually played at a level of
55,958 and Simon Rösner at a level of
45,294. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.5% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky changes to +9.4% and Simon Rösner changes to -6.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky becomes +2.2% and for Simon Rösner becomes -1.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fares Dessouky: 78%, Simon Rösner: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fares Dessouky: 72%, Simon Rösner: 83%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Fares Dessouky:
52,181, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Simon Rösner:
48,890, level confidence: 83%.