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Frazer Richards v Daniel Bergin (Thu 31 Oct 2019)

Match won by Frazer Richards. Result: 9-11,12-10,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Frazer Richards: 6,392, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Daniel Bergin: 7,096, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Daniel Bergin to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Frazer Richards.

Frazer Richards won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Frazer Richards played 24% better than Daniel Bergin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Frazer Richards actually played at a level of 7,508 and Daniel Bergin at a level of 6,041. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Frazer Richards changes to +17% and Daniel Bergin changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Frazer Richards becomes +5.2% and for Daniel Bergin becomes -4.9%.

Given Frazer Richards's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.6% has been applied to his level change.

Given Daniel Bergin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.2% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2019' so the adjustment for Frazer Richards is +3.7% and for Daniel Bergin is -3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Frazer Richards: 84%, Daniel Bergin: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Frazer Richards: 71%, Daniel Bergin: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Frazer Richards: 6,617, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Daniel Bergin: 6,856, level confidence: 73%.