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Stephen Hearst v Frazer Richards (Thu 24 Oct 2019)

Match won by Frazer Richards. Result: 11-7,0-11,12-14,11-7,6-11.

Starting level for Stephen Hearst: 7,034, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Frazer Richards: 6,211, level confidence: 67%.
Stephen Hearst to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Frazer Richards.

Frazer Richards won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Frazer Richards played 14% better than Stephen Hearst in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Frazer Richards actually played at a level of 7,049 and Stephen Hearst at a level of 6,197. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Frazer Richards changes to +13% and Stephen Hearst changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Frazer Richards becomes +4.2% and for Stephen Hearst becomes -3.8%.

Given Frazer Richards's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.9% has been applied to his level change.

Given Stephen Hearst's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2019' so the adjustment for Frazer Richards is +3% and for Stephen Hearst is -2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Frazer Richards: 82%, Stephen Hearst: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Frazer Richards: 72%, Stephen Hearst: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stephen Hearst: 6,844, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Frazer Richards: 6,389, level confidence: 72%.