SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Peter Berkley v Matthew Williams (Thu 17 Oct 2019)

Match won by Peter Berkley. Result: 15-1,15-6,15-9.

Starting level for Peter Berkley: 5,849, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Matthew Williams: 5,844, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Peter Berkley to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Matthew Williams.

Peter Berkley won all of the games and 74% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 181% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Berkley played 181% better than Matthew Williams in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Berkley actually played at a level of 9,805 and Matthew Williams at a level of 3,486. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 68% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Berkley changes to +68% and Matthew Williams changes to -55%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Berkley becomes +16.7% and for Matthew Williams becomes -14%.

Given Peter Berkley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.5% has been applied to his level change.

Given Matthew Williams's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.5% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2019' so the adjustment for Peter Berkley is +12% and for Matthew Williams is -9.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Peter Berkley is limited to +9.4% and Matthew Williams is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Berkley: 79%, Matthew Williams: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Berkley: 47%, Matthew Williams: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Berkley: 6,390, level confidence: 47%.
Final level for Matthew Williams: 5,564, level confidence: 50%.