Phil Regan v Frazer Richards (Mon 14 Oct 2019)
Match won by Frazer Richards. Result: 5-11,2-11,4-11.
Starting level for
Phil Regan:
4,700, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Frazer Richards:
5,788, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Frazer Richards to win as he is currently playing
23% better than Phil Regan.
Frazer Richards won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Frazer Richards played
200% better than Phil Regan in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Frazer Richards actually played at a level of
9,034 and Phil Regan at a level of
3,011. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 56% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Frazer Richards changes to +44% and Phil Regan changes to -49%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Frazer Richards becomes +11.8% and for Phil Regan becomes -14%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Welsh Inter Counties 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Frazer Richards is limited to +9.4% and Phil Regan is limited to -5.2% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Frazer Richards: 90%, Phil Regan: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Frazer Richards: 58%, Phil Regan: 54%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Phil Regan:
4,459, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Frazer Richards:
6,325, level confidence: 58%.