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Matthew Clements v Frazer Richards (Mon 14 Oct 2019)

Match won by Frazer Richards. Result: 6-11,11-5,10-12,11-6,2-11.

Starting level for Matthew Clements: 4,642, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Frazer Richards: 6,096, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Frazer Richards to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Matthew Clements.

Frazer Richards won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Frazer Richards played 11% better than Matthew Clements in this match.

As Frazer Richards has played below his allowed range at 5,461, his level reduction is 6.3% before damping. On the assumption that Frazer Richards would normally have been playing at level 5,950 (based on typical behaviour), Matthew Clements played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.5% and 6.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Frazer Richards changes to -5.5% and Matthew Clements changes to +6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Frazer Richards becomes -2.4% and for Matthew Clements becomes +2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Welsh Inter Counties 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Frazer Richards: 89%, Matthew Clements: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Frazer Richards: 82%, Matthew Clements: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Clements: 4,762, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Frazer Richards: 5,945, level confidence: 82%.