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Luke Howells v Frazer Richards (Thu 10 Oct 2019)

Match won by Luke Howells. Result: 11-6,7-11,11-9,11-9.

Starting level for Luke Howells: 5,823, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Frazer Richards: 6,232, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Frazer Richards to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Luke Howells.

Luke Howells won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Howells played 21% better than Frazer Richards in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Luke Howells actually played at a level of 6,639 and Frazer Richards at a level of 5,466. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Howells changes to +14% and Frazer Richards changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Howells becomes +4.5% and for Frazer Richards becomes -4%.

Given Luke Howells's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.4% has been applied to his level change.

Given Frazer Richards's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2019' so the adjustment for Luke Howells is +3.3% and for Frazer Richards is -2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Howells: 86%, Frazer Richards: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Howells: 76%, Frazer Richards: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Luke Howells: 6,005, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Frazer Richards: 6,098, level confidence: 80%.