Frazer Richards v Steven Colarusso (Thu 03 Oct 2019)
Match won by Frazer Richards. Result: 12-10,6-11,12-10,13-15,11-4.
Starting level for
Frazer Richards:
6,169, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Steven Colarusso:
6,161, level confidence: 55%.
Frazer Richards to win as he is currently playing
0% better than Steven Colarusso.
Frazer Richards won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Frazer Richards played
10% better than Steven Colarusso in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Frazer Richards actually played at a level of
6,451 and Steven Colarusso at a level of
5,892. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Frazer Richards changes to +3.1% and Steven Colarusso changes to -4.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Frazer Richards becomes +1.7% and for Steven Colarusso becomes -2.1%.
Given Frazer Richards's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.8% has been applied to his level change.
Given Steven Colarusso's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.8% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2019' so the adjustment for Frazer Richards is +1.2% and for Steven Colarusso is -1.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Frazer Richards: 90%, Steven Colarusso: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Frazer Richards: 86%, Steven Colarusso: 71%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Frazer Richards:
6,234, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Steven Colarusso:
6,060, level confidence: 71%.