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Alfie Wheeler v Matthew Williams (Wed 02 Oct 2019)

Match won by Matthew Williams. Result: 8-15,15-13,3-15,13-15.

Starting level for Alfie Wheeler: 5,033, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Matthew Williams: 5,538, level confidence: 64%.
Matthew Williams to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Alfie Wheeler.

Matthew Williams won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 49% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Williams played 33% better than Alfie Wheeler in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matthew Williams actually played at a level of 6,085 and Alfie Wheeler at a level of 4,581. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Williams changes to +9.4% and Alfie Wheeler changes to -9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Williams becomes +3.5% and for Alfie Wheeler becomes -3.5%.

Given Matthew Williams's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.3% has been applied to his level change.

Given Alfie Wheeler's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2019' so the adjustment for Matthew Williams is +2.6% and for Alfie Wheeler is -2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Williams: 80%, Alfie Wheeler: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Williams: 73%, Alfie Wheeler: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alfie Wheeler: 4,898, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Matthew Williams: 5,671, level confidence: 73%.