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Youssef Soliman v Edmon Lopez Moller (Fri 27 Sep 2019)

Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 11-5,11-7,5-11,9-11,17-15.

Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 37,448, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 33,172, level confidence: 68%.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Edmon Lopez Moller.

Youssef Soliman won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played 10% better than Edmon Lopez Moller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Soliman actually played at a level of 36,888 and Edmon Lopez Moller at a level of 33,675. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to -1.4% and Edmon Lopez Moller changes to +1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes -0.6% and for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes +0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 83%, Edmon Lopez Moller: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 81%, Edmon Lopez Moller: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Youssef Soliman: 37,194, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 33,461, level confidence: 81%.