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Edmon Lopez Moller v Karim El Hammamy (Thu 26 Sep 2019)

Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 11-5,11-9,5-11,11-8.

Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 32,855, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Karim El Hammamy: 27,249, level confidence: 45%.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Karim El Hammamy.

Edmon Lopez Moller won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played 22% better than Karim El Hammamy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Edmon Lopez Moller actually played at a level of 33,015 and Karim El Hammamy at a level of 27,117. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to +0.4% and Karim El Hammamy changes to -0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes +0.2% and for Karim El Hammamy becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 69%, Karim El Hammamy: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 69%, Karim El Hammamy: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 32,908, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Karim El Hammamy: 27,317, level confidence: 66%.