Chris Davies v Frazer Richards (Thu 26 Sep 2019)
Match won by Frazer Richards. Result: 0-11,8-11,7-11.
Starting level for
Chris Davies:
3,132, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for
Frazer Richards:
6,098, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Frazer Richards to win as he is currently playing
95% better than Chris Davies.
Frazer Richards won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Frazer Richards played
120% better than Chris Davies in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Frazer Richards actually played at a level of
6,482 and Chris Davies at a level of
2,946. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.3% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 4.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Frazer Richards changes to +3.2% and Chris Davies changes to -4.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Frazer Richards becomes +1.7% and for Chris Davies becomes -2.5%.
Given Frazer Richards's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.5% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2019' so the adjustment for Frazer Richards is +1.2% and for Chris Davies is -1.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Frazer Richards: 89%, Chris Davies: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Frazer Richards: 84%, Chris Davies: 71%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Chris Davies:
3,070, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Frazer Richards:
6,164, level confidence: 84%.