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Simon Rösner v Paul Coll (Sat 21 Sep 2019)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 5-11,2-11,9-11.

Starting level for Simon Rösner: 51,837, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Coll: 65,602, level confidence: 66%.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Simon Rösner.

Paul Coll won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played 106% better than Simon Rösner in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Coll actually played at a level of 83,748 and Simon Rösner at a level of 40,605. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to +24% and Simon Rösner changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes +4.5% and for Simon Rösner becomes -4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'European Club League Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 81%, Simon Rösner: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 64%, Simon Rösner: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Rösner: 50,138, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Paul Coll: 68,065, level confidence: 64%.