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Simon Rösner v Matias Tuomi (Thu 19 Sep 2019)

Match won by Simon Rösner. Result: 11-3,11-6,11-2.

Starting level for Simon Rösner: 52,492, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matias Tuomi: 14,917, level confidence: 62%.
Simon Rösner to win as he is currently playing 252% better than Matias Tuomi.

Simon Rösner won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Rösner played 200% better than Matias Tuomi in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Simon Rösner was taking it easy by anything up to 30%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 25,836 and 52,492 without affecting his level.

In this case, Simon Rösner played at level 44,751 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Matias Tuomi is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Rösner: 88%, Matias Tuomi: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Rösner: 81%, Matias Tuomi: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Rösner: 52,413, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Matias Tuomi: 14,895, level confidence: 73%.