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Matthew Williams v Paul Duffy (Thu 19 Sep 2019)

Match won by Matthew Williams. Result: 15-11,15-7,17-15.

Starting level for Matthew Williams: 5,720, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Paul Duffy: 2,633, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Matthew Williams to win as he is currently playing 117% better than Paul Duffy.

Matthew Williams won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Williams played 47% better than Paul Duffy in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Matthew Williams was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,010 and 5,720 without affecting his level.

As Matthew Williams has played below his allowed range at 3,934, his level reduction is 1.9% before damping. On the assumption that Matthew Williams would normally have been playing at level 4,885 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Duffy played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 8.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Williams changes to -1.3% and Paul Duffy changes to +7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Williams becomes -0.7% and for Paul Duffy becomes +3.5%.

Given Matthew Williams's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2019' so the adjustment for Matthew Williams is -0.5% and for Paul Duffy is +2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Williams: 82%, Paul Duffy: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Williams: 67%, Paul Duffy: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Williams: 5,681, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Paul Duffy: 2,698, level confidence: 73%.