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Frazer Richards v Ellis Lawrence (Mon 16 Sep 2019)

Match won by Frazer Richards. Result: 11-7,11-9,11-5.

Starting level for Frazer Richards: 5,945, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ellis Lawrence: 4,549, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Frazer Richards to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Ellis Lawrence.

Frazer Richards won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Frazer Richards played 56% better than Ellis Lawrence in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Frazer Richards actually played at a level of 6,504 and Ellis Lawrence at a level of 4,158. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.2% and 8.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Frazer Richards changes to +8.1% and Ellis Lawrence changes to -8.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Frazer Richards becomes +3.1% and for Ellis Lawrence becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Rhiwbina Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Frazer Richards: 87%, Ellis Lawrence: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Frazer Richards: 79%, Ellis Lawrence: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Frazer Richards: 6,119, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Ellis Lawrence: 4,451, level confidence: 79%.