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Frazer Richards v Owen Heyes (Mon 16 Sep 2019)

Match won by Frazer Richards. Result: 11-6,12-10,11-8.

Starting level for Frazer Richards: 5,822, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Owen Heyes: 4,502, level confidence: 60%.
Frazer Richards to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Owen Heyes.

Frazer Richards won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Frazer Richards played 46% better than Owen Heyes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Frazer Richards actually played at a level of 6,187 and Owen Heyes at a level of 4,236. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.5% and 5.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Frazer Richards changes to +5.2% and Owen Heyes changes to -5.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Frazer Richards becomes +2.3% and for Owen Heyes becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Rhiwbina Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Frazer Richards: 80%, Owen Heyes: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Frazer Richards: 75%, Owen Heyes: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Frazer Richards: 5,947, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Owen Heyes: 4,405, level confidence: 73%.