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Matthew Williams v Oliver Griffiths (Mon 16 Sep 2019)

Match won by Matthew Williams. Result: 4-11,13-11,11-8,11-9.

Starting level for Matthew Williams: 5,174, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Oliver Griffiths: 4,538, level confidence: 51%.
Matthew Williams to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Oliver Griffiths.

Matthew Williams won 75% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Williams played 17% better than Oliver Griffiths in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matthew Williams actually played at a level of 5,236 and Oliver Griffiths at a level of 4,485. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Williams changes to +1.1% and Oliver Griffiths changes to -1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Williams becomes +0.6% and for Oliver Griffiths becomes -0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Rhiwbina Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Williams: 72%, Oliver Griffiths: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Williams: 71%, Oliver Griffiths: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Williams: 5,199, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Oliver Griffiths: 4,501, level confidence: 71%.