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Frazer Richards v Henry Withrington (Sun 15 Sep 2019)

Match won by Frazer Richards. Result: 11-8,8-11,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Frazer Richards: 5,412, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Henry Withrington: 6,184, level confidence: 57%.
Henry Withrington to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Frazer Richards.

Frazer Richards won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Frazer Richards played 27% better than Henry Withrington in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Frazer Richards actually played at a level of 6,530 and Henry Withrington at a level of 5,126. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Frazer Richards changes to +18% and Henry Withrington changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Frazer Richards becomes +5.7% and for Henry Withrington becomes -5.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Rhiwbina Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Henry Withrington is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Frazer Richards: 79%, Henry Withrington: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Frazer Richards: 65%, Henry Withrington: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Frazer Richards: 5,711, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Henry Withrington: 6,000, level confidence: 63%.