Greg Tippings v Matthew Williams (Sun 15 Sep 2019)
Match won by Greg Tippings. Result: 9-11,11-3,11-4,12-10.
Starting level for
Greg Tippings:
12,478, level confidence: 30%.
Starting level for
Matthew Williams:
5,018, level confidence: 50%.
Greg Tippings to win as he is currently playing
149% better than Matthew Williams.
Greg Tippings won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Tippings played
34% better than Matthew Williams in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Greg Tippings was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,291 and 12,478 without affecting his level.
As Greg Tippings has played below his allowed range at 7,479, his level reduction is 10.9% before damping. On the assumption that Greg Tippings would normally have been playing at level 10,171 (based on typical behaviour), Matthew Williams played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.8% and 14% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Tippings changes to -6.8% and Matthew Williams changes to +8.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Tippings becomes -2.3% and for Matthew Williams becomes +3.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Rhiwbina Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Tippings: 55%, Matthew Williams: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Tippings: 40%, Matthew Williams: 52%.
A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Greg Tippings:
12,318, level confidence: 40%.
Final level for Matthew Williams:
5,176, level confidence: 52%.