Mathieu Castagnet v Declan James (Wed 11 Sep 2019)
Match won by Mathieu Castagnet. Result: 11-7,9-11,11-3.
Starting level for
Mathieu Castagnet:
42,105, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Declan James:
43,067, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing
2% better than Mathieu Castagnet.
Mathieu Castagnet won 67% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mathieu Castagnet played
34% better than Declan James in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mathieu Castagnet actually played at a level of
49,259 and Declan James at a level of
36,813. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet changes to +12% and Declan James changes to -10.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet becomes +2.8% and for Declan James becomes -2.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open De France' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mathieu Castagnet: 82%, Declan James: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mathieu Castagnet: 70%, Declan James: 76%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mathieu Castagnet:
43,125, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Declan James:
42,078, level confidence: 76%.