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Edmon Lopez Moller v Miko ??Ijänen (Sat 18 May 2019)

Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-9.

Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 34,251, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Miko ??Ijänen: 24,537, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Miko ??Ijänen.

Edmon Lopez Moller won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played 65% better than Miko ??Ijänen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Edmon Lopez Moller actually played at a level of 37,238 and Miko ??Ijänen at a level of 22,569. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.3% and 7.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to +7.3% and Miko ??Ijänen changes to -4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes +2% and for Miko ??Ijänen becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Seriespel 2018-2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 73%, Miko ??Ijänen: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 68%, Miko ??Ijänen: 84%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 34,832, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Miko ??Ijänen: 24,317, level confidence: 84%.