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Tom Ford v Aditya Jagtap (Sat 07 Sep 2019)

Match won by Tom Ford. Result: 11-9,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Tom Ford: 26,376, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Aditya Jagtap: 25,533, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Tom Ford to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Aditya Jagtap.

Tom Ford won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Ford played 94% better than Aditya Jagtap in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Ford actually played at a level of 36,157 and Aditya Jagtap at a level of 18,626. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Ford changes to +36% and Aditya Jagtap changes to -31%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Ford becomes +7.3% and for Aditya Jagtap becomes -6.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tom Ford is limited to +6% and Aditya Jagtap is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Ford: 84%, Aditya Jagtap: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Ford: 61%, Aditya Jagtap: 65%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Ford: 27,955, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Aditya Jagtap: 24,836, level confidence: 65%.