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Tom Ford v Bernat Jaume (Fri 06 Sep 2019)

Match won by Tom Ford. Result: 6-11,11-2,13-11,9-11,11-8.

Starting level for Tom Ford: 25,572, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Bernat Jaume: 30,908, level confidence: 64%.
Bernat Jaume to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Tom Ford.

Tom Ford won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Ford played 12% better than Bernat Jaume in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Ford actually played at a level of 29,696 and Bernat Jaume at a level of 26,616. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Ford changes to +14% and Bernat Jaume changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Ford becomes +3.4% and for Bernat Jaume becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Ford: 82%, Bernat Jaume: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Ford: 70%, Bernat Jaume: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Ford: 26,402, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Bernat Jaume: 30,289, level confidence: 69%.