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Tom Ford v Emyr Evans (Thu 05 Sep 2019)

Match won by Tom Ford. Result: 11-5,11-8,12-10.

Starting level for Tom Ford: 24,658, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Emyr Evans: 26,540, level confidence: 56%.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Tom Ford.

Tom Ford won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Ford played 50% better than Emyr Evans in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Ford actually played at a level of 31,351 and Emyr Evans at a level of 20,874. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Ford changes to +20% and Emyr Evans changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Ford becomes +4.5% and for Emyr Evans becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Ford: 85%, Emyr Evans: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Ford: 67%, Emyr Evans: 59%.

A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Ford: 25,637, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Emyr Evans: 25,872, level confidence: 59%.