Aditya Jagtap v Owain Taylor (Thu 05 Sep 2019)
Match won by Aditya Jagtap. Result: 11-9,11-8,11-5.
Starting level for
Aditya Jagtap:
24,138, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Owain Taylor:
22,871, level confidence: 70%.
Aditya Jagtap to win as he is currently playing
6% better than Owain Taylor.
Aditya Jagtap won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Aditya Jagtap played
52% better than Owain Taylor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Aditya Jagtap actually played at a level of
28,934 and Owain Taylor at a level of
19,080. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Aditya Jagtap changes to +16% and Owain Taylor changes to -19%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Aditya Jagtap becomes +3.9% and for Owain Taylor becomes -4.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Aditya Jagtap: 91%, Owain Taylor: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Aditya Jagtap: 76%, Owain Taylor: 70%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Aditya Jagtap:
24,942, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Owain Taylor:
22,002, level confidence: 70%.