Tom Ford v Stuart Macgregor (Wed 04 Sep 2019)
Match won by Tom Ford. Result: 11-6,8-11,12-10,11-3.
Starting level for
Tom Ford:
24,270, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
19,884, level confidence: 61%.
Tom Ford to win as he is currently playing
22% better than Stuart Macgregor.
Tom Ford won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Ford played
30% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Ford actually played at a level of
25,042 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of
19,271. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Ford changes to +2.9% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -2.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Ford becomes +1.2% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -1.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Ford: 75%, Stuart Macgregor: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Ford: 73%, Stuart Macgregor: 76%.
Final level for Tom Ford:
24,560, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
19,656, level confidence: 76%.