Declan James v Richie Fallows (Fri 30 Aug 2019)
Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-6,13-11,11-8.
Starting level for
Declan James:
42,294, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Richie Fallows:
31,236, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing
35% better than Richie Fallows.
Declan James won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played
45% better than Richie Fallows in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Declan James actually played at a level of
43,760 and Richie Fallows at a level of
30,190. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3% and 3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to +3% and Richie Fallows changes to -2.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes +1.1% and for Richie Fallows becomes -1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Cleethorpes Invitational' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 83%, Richie Fallows: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 80%, Richie Fallows: 85%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Declan James:
42,419, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Richie Fallows:
31,133, level confidence: 85%.