Miles Jenkins v Elliott Morris Devred (Sun 18 Aug 2019)
Match won by Miles Jenkins. Result: 11-4,11-7,12-14,9-11,11-9.
Starting level for
Miles Jenkins:
22,615, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Elliott Morris Devred:
17,619, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Miles Jenkins to win as he is currently playing
28% better than Elliott Morris Devred.
Miles Jenkins won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miles Jenkins played
13% better than Elliott Morris Devred in this match.
As Miles Jenkins has played below his allowed range at 20,742, his level reduction is 4.6% before damping. On the assumption that Miles Jenkins would normally have been playing at level 22,155 (based on typical behaviour), Elliott Morris Devred played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.7%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miles Jenkins changes to -4.1% and Elliott Morris Devred changes to +4.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miles Jenkins becomes -1.5% and for Elliott Morris Devred becomes +1.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Hirwaun Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miles Jenkins: 82%, Elliott Morris Devred: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miles Jenkins: 77%, Elliott Morris Devred: 80%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Miles Jenkins:
22,245, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Elliott Morris Devred:
17,888, level confidence: 80%.