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Stuart Macgregor v Owain Taylor (Wed 26 Jun 2019)

Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 11-9,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,227, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Owain Taylor: 23,466, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Owain Taylor to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Stuart Macgregor won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played 47% better than Owain Taylor in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of 25,099 and Owain Taylor at a level of 17,041. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 33% and 33% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +33% and Owain Taylor changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +7.1% and for Owain Taylor becomes -4.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Gibraltar Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 76%, Owain Taylor: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 56%, Owain Taylor: 66%.

A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 19,444, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Owain Taylor: 22,924, level confidence: 66%.