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Patrick Rooney v Tom Ford (Sun 23 Jun 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 6-11,11-5,9-11,11-7,11-4.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 31,806, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Tom Ford: 23,899, level confidence: 69%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Tom Ford.

Patrick Rooney won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 14% better than Tom Ford in this match.

As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 28,676, his level reduction is 5.2% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 30,973 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Ford played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 5.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -4.5% and Tom Ford changes to +4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -1.5% and for Tom Ford becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Llantrisant Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 71%, Tom Ford: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 66%, Tom Ford: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 31,333, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Tom Ford: 24,316, level confidence: 77%.