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Tom Ford v Peter Creed (Sun 23 Jun 2019)

Match won by Tom Ford. Result: 2-11,11-5,11-9,5-11,11-7.

Starting level for Tom Ford: 23,226, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 26,901, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Tom Ford.

Tom Ford won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Ford played 6% better than Peter Creed in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Ford actually played at a level of 25,705 and Peter Creed at a level of 24,306. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Ford changes to +9.9% and Peter Creed changes to -8.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Ford becomes +2.7% and for Peter Creed becomes -2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Llantrisant Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Ford: 77%, Peter Creed: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Ford: 70%, Peter Creed: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Ford: 23,864, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 26,407, level confidence: 76%.