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Matthew Williams v Kieran Hillman (Sat 22 Jun 2019)

Match won by Kieran Hillman. Result: 8-11,7-11,5-11.

Starting level for Matthew Williams: 5,227, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Kieran Hillman: 6,709, level confidence: 62%.
Kieran Hillman to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Matthew Williams.

Kieran Hillman won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kieran Hillman played 65% better than Matthew Williams in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kieran Hillman actually played at a level of 7,607 and Matthew Williams at a level of 4,610. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kieran Hillman changes to +12% and Matthew Williams changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kieran Hillman becomes +3.9% and for Matthew Williams becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Llantrisant Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kieran Hillman: 79%, Matthew Williams: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kieran Hillman: 69%, Matthew Williams: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Williams: 5,018, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Kieran Hillman: 6,962, level confidence: 69%.