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Tom Ford v Jack Turney (Sat 22 Jun 2019)

Match won by Tom Ford. Result: 11-3,11-3,11-7.

Starting level for Tom Ford: 22,020, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Jack Turney: 15,098, level confidence: 67%.
Tom Ford to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Jack Turney.

Tom Ford won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Ford played 154% better than Jack Turney in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Ford actually played at a level of 29,051 and Jack Turney at a level of 11,444. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Ford changes to +26% and Jack Turney changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Ford becomes +5.7% and for Jack Turney becomes -5.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Llantrisant Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jack Turney is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Ford: 79%, Jack Turney: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Ford: 60%, Jack Turney: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Ford: 23,237, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Jack Turney: 14,664, level confidence: 62%.