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Lewis Doughty v Matthew Williams (Sat 22 Jun 2019)

Match won by Lewis Doughty. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Lewis Doughty: 10,841, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matthew Williams: 5,364, level confidence: 50%.
Lewis Doughty to win as he is currently playing 102% better than Matthew Williams.

Lewis Doughty won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Doughty played 136% better than Matthew Williams in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis Doughty actually played at a level of 11,708 and Matthew Williams at a level of 4,967. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.6% and 5.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Doughty changes to +3.7% and Matthew Williams changes to -5.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Doughty becomes +1.6% and for Matthew Williams becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Llantrisant Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Doughty: 86%, Matthew Williams: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Doughty: 80%, Matthew Williams: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Doughty: 11,003, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Matthew Williams: 5,227, level confidence: 65%.