Camille Serme v Tesni Murphy (Wed 12 Jun 2019)
Match won by Camille Serme. Result: 11-5,13-11.
Starting level for
Camille Serme:
11,656, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tesni Murphy:
9,988, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Camille Serme to win as she is currently playing
17% better than Tesni Murphy.
Camille Serme won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Camille Serme played
52% better than Tesni Murphy in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Camille Serme actually played at a level of
13,287 and Tesni Murphy at a level of
8,762. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 9.5% and 9.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Camille Serme changes to +8.3% and Tesni Murphy changes to -9.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Camille Serme becomes +2.7% and for Tesni Murphy becomes -3.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Tour Finals' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Camille Serme: 90%, Tesni Murphy: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Camille Serme: 79%, Tesni Murphy: 74%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Camille Serme:
11,848, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Tesni Murphy:
9,753, level confidence: 74%.