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Nour El Sherbini v Nour El Tayeb (Tue 11 Jun 2019)

Match won by Nour El Sherbini. Result: 11-5,11-7.

Starting level for Nour El Sherbini: 12,825, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Nour El Tayeb: 12,046, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Nour El Sherbini to win as she is currently playing 6% better than Nour El Tayeb.

Nour El Sherbini won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nour El Sherbini played 83% better than Nour El Tayeb in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nour El Sherbini actually played at a level of 16,829 and Nour El Tayeb at a level of 9,180. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nour El Sherbini changes to +22% and Nour El Tayeb changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nour El Sherbini becomes +5.5% and for Nour El Tayeb becomes -4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Tour Finals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nour El Sherbini is limited to +4.6% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nour El Sherbini: 77%, Nour El Tayeb: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nour El Sherbini: 59%, Nour El Tayeb: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nour El Sherbini: 13,328, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Nour El Tayeb: 11,589, level confidence: 64%.